RESUMO
Objectives: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases in Jamaica and to explore the risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 from 9 March to 31 December 2020. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data was conducted using confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica. Definitions of a confirmed case, disease severity, and death were based on World Health Organization guidelines. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to determine association with outcomes. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of severe COVID-19. Results: This analysis included 12 169 cases of COVID-19 (median age, 36 years; 6 744 females [ 55.4%]) of which 512 cases (4.2%) presented with severe disease, and of those, 318 patients (62.1%) died (median age at death, 71.5 years). Severe disease was associated with being male (OR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) and 40 years or older (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 5.1-8.2). COVID-19 death was also associated with being male (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), age 40 years or older (OR, 17.9; 95% CI, 11.6-27.7), and in the Western versus South East Health Region (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3). Conclusions: The findings of this cross-sectional analysis indicate that confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jamaica were more likely to be female and younger individuals, whereas COVID-19 deaths occurred more frequently in males and older individuals. There is increased risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes beginning at age 40, with males disproportionately affected. COVID-19 death also varied by geographic region. This evidence could be useful to other countries with similar settings and to policymakers charged with managing outbreaks and health.
RESUMO
[ABSTRACT]. Objectives. To describe the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases in Jamaica and to explore the risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 from 9 March to 31 December 2020. Methods. A cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data was conducted using confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica. Definitions of a confirmed case, disease severity, and death were based on World Health Organization guidelines. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to determine association with outcomes. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of severe COVID-19. Results. This analysis included 12 169 cases of COVID-19 (median age, 36 years; 6 744 females [ 55.4%]) of which 512 cases (4.2%) presented with severe disease, and of those, 318 patients (62.1%) died (median age at death, 71.5 years). Severe disease was associated with being male (OR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) and 40 years or older (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 5.1-8.2). COVID-19 death was also associated with being male (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), age 40 years or older (OR, 17.9; 95% CI, 11.6-27.7), and in the Western versus South East Health Region (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3). Conclusions. The findings of this cross-sectional analysis indicate that confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jamaica were more likely to be female and younger individuals, whereas COVID-19 deaths occurred more frequently in males and older individuals. There is increased risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes beginning at age 40, with males disproportionately affected. COVID-19 death also varied by geographic region. This evidence could be useful to other countries with similar settings and to policymakers charged with managing outbreaks and health.
[RESUMEN]. Objetivos. Describir las características y los resultados de los casos de COVID-19 en Jamaica y explorar los factores de riesgo asociados a la COVID-19 grave desde el 9 de marzo hasta el 31 de diciembre del 2020. Métodos. Se realizó un análisis transversal de datos nacionales de vigilancia a partir de los casos confirma- dos de COVID-19 en Jamaica. Las definiciones de caso confirmado, gravedad de la enfermedad y muerte se basaron en las directrices de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Para determinar la asociación con los criterios de valoración se utilizó la prueba de χ2 y la prueba exacta de Fisher. Se usaron modelos de regresión logística para determinar los factores predictivos de la COVID-19 grave. Resultados. Se incluyeron en el análisis 12 169 casos de COVID-19 (mediana de edad, 36 años; 6 744 mujeres [55,4%]), de los que 512 (4,2%) fueron de enfermedad grave. De estos pacientes, 318 (62,1%) fall- ecieron (mediana de edad al morir, 71,5 años). Se observó una asociación de la enfermedad grave con el sexo masculino (OR de 1,4; IC del 95 %, 1,2-1,7) y con la edad igual o superior a 40 años (OR de 6,5; IC del 95 %, 5,1-8,2). La muerte por COVID-19 también mostró una asociación con el sexo masculino (OR de 1,4; IC del 95%, 1,1-1,7), con la edad igual o superior a 40 años (OR de 17,9; IC del 95%, 11,6-27,7) y con la Región de Atención de Salud Occidental en comparación con la Sudoriental (OR de 1,7; IC del 95%, 1,2-2,3). Conclusiones. Los resultados de este análisis transversal indican que los casos confirmados de COVID-19 en Jamaica correspondieron una mayor probabilidad a mujeres y personas más jóvenes, mientras que las muertes por COVID-19 fueron más frecuentes en varones y personas de mayor edad. Hay un mayor riesgo de evolución desfavorable de la COVID-19 a partir de los 40 años, que afecta de manera desproporcionada a los varones. Las muertes por COVID-19 también variaron según la región geográfica. Esta evidencia podría ser de utilidad para otros países con entornos similares y para los responsables de la formulación de políticas en materia de gestión de brotes y salud.
[RESUMO]. Objetivos. Descrever as características e os desfechos dos casos de COVID-19 na Jamaica e explorar os fatores de risco associados à COVID-19 grave de 9 de março a 31 de dezembro de 2020. Métodos. Análise transversal de dados de vigilância nacional usando casos confirmados de COVID-19 na Jamaica. As definições de caso confirmado, gravidade da doença e morte foram baseadas nas recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde. Foram usados testes de qui-quadrado e exato de Fisher para determinar a associação com os desfechos. Modelos de regressão logística foram usados para deter- minar os preditores de COVID-19 grave. Resultados. Esta análise incluiu 12.169 casos de COVID-19 (idade mediana: 36 anos; 6 744 do sexo feminino [55,4%]), dos quais 512 casos (4,2%) apresentaram doença grave; desses, 318 pacientes (62,1%) morreram (idade mediana ao morrer: 71,5 anos). A doença grave estava associada a ser do sexo masculino (razão de chances [RC]: 1,4; intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC 95%]: 1,2–1,7) e ter 40 anos ou mais de idade (RC: 6,5; IC 95%: 5,1–8,2). A morte por COVID-19 também estava associada a ser sexo masculino (RC: 1,4; IC 95%: 1,1–1,7), ter 40 anos ou mais (RC: 17,9; IC 95%: 11,6–27,7) e estar na Região Sanitária Oeste em comparação com a Região Sanitária Sudeste (RC: 1,7; IC 95%: 1,2–2,3). Conclusões. Os achados desta análise transversal indicam que a probabilidade de casos confirmados de COVID-19 na Jamaica era maior em indivíduos do sexo feminino e mais jovens, ao passo que as mortes por COVID-19 ocorreram com mais frequência em indivíduos do sexo masculino e mais velhos. Há um risco maior de resultados desfavoráveis em relação à COVID-19 a partir dos 40 anos, e indivíduos do sexo masculino são desproporcionalmente mais afetados. A morte por COVID-19 também variou de acordo com a região geográ- fica. Essas evidências podem ser úteis para outros países com cenários semelhantes e para os formuladores de políticas encarregados de manejar surtos e gerenciar a saúde.
